BEYOND PREDICTABILITY-BLACK SWAN THEORY AND ITS IMPLICATIONS FOR AVIATION SAFETY

PROPOSAL FOR DATA COLLECTION AND EVALUATION PROCESS IN THE SAFETY ANALYSIS IN THE CONTEXT OF APPLYING THE BALCK SWAN THEORY

Authors

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.10436124

Keywords:

Black Swan Theory, aviation safety, Taleb's theory

Abstract

The realm of aviation safety has long been governed by predictive risk management strategies based on historical data. However, the inherent unpredictability of the aviation environment, characterized by its susceptibility to rare yet catastrophic events, necessitates a paradigm shift. This paper explores the application of Nassim Nicholas Taleb's Black Swan theory in the context of aviation safety, providing a novel perspective on managing unforeseen risks. We begin by elucidating the concept of Black Swan events - unpredictable and highly impactful occurrences - and their relevance in the aviation sector. Our discussion delves into the limitations of traditional safety management systems in anticipating such events, highlighting the need for more resilient and adaptable approaches. We propose a framework that integrates Black Swan principles into aviation safety practices, emphasizing the significance of preparing for the improbable through enhanced situational awareness, adaptive technologies, and robust crisis response strategies. The article juxtaposes case studies of past aviation incidents that qualify as Black Swan events, analyzing their impacts and the subsequent changes in safety protocols. We argue that incorporating the Black Swan theory into aviation safety paradigms not only enhances the ability to cope with unexpected crises but also fosters a more proactive and comprehensive safety culture. The paper concludes by discussing the theoretical and practical implications of this approach and suggesting directions for future research in aviation safety management . Through this exploration, we underscore the critical need for the aviation industry to transcend conventional risk assessment methods and embrace strategies that account for the unpredictable nature of Black Swan events.

Author Biographies

  • Katarzyna Kostur, Polish Air Force University

    Katarzyna Kostur PhD. Eng.

  • Jan Rajchel, Uniwersytet Przyrodniczo Humanistyczny w Siedlcach

    Jan Rajchel (Prof.)

  • Tomasz Balcerzak, Lazarski University

    Tomasz Balcerzak, PhD. Eng. EASA/FAA Pilot.-Currently: CEO of Wademekum LTD. and Aerospace Technology LTD., Lecturer of Aviation and Space Law and Business Management at Lazarski University, Expert European Commission- Research Executive Agency (REA), Expert of European Global Navigation Satellite Systems Agency.
    -2013-2016-President of Polish Aviation Club.
    -2014-CEO/General Director of Eurolot Airlines.
    -2011-2014 Chairman of Supervisory Board of WRO LOT handling agent company.
    -2011-2013 COO/Board Member for Operations and Maintenance/Accountable Manager at LOT Polish
    Airlines.
    -2009-2011 CEO/COO in Enter Air- charter airline.
    Previous positions: Quality/Safety/Security Director at Fly Jet business executive airline, Managing Director at FDS- Flight Dispatch Services company, Director of Operations and Accountable Manager at Centralwings airline, lieute nant pilot-crew commander of the 36th Military Special Air Transport Regiment for VIP in Warsaw.
    Graduated from the Air Force Academy, received pilot, lieutenant engineer degree, magistry studies and PhD at Warsaw University, MBA at Warsaw School of Economics. Previously also Lecturer at Silesian Univeristy of Technology-Aviation Faculty and Aviation and Space Law at Institute of International Relations at Warsaw University.
    Extensive experience in the aviation industry and in managing projects of the operating companies. Founder and co-founder of several existing companies in Poland in aviation industry. Author and coauthor over 40 publications. Specializes in transportation, logistics, aviation and space. Hobbies: playing the saxophone.Tomasz Balcerzak, PhD. Eng. EASA/FAA Pilot.-Currently: CEO of Wademekum LTD. and Aerospace Technology LTD., Lecturer of Aviation and Space Law and Business Management at Lazarski University, Expert European Commission- Research Executive Agency (REA), Expert of European Global Navigation Satellite Systems Agency. -2013-2016-President of Polish Aviation Club. -2014-CEO/General Director of Eurolot Airlines. -2011-2014 Chairman of Supervisory Board of WRO LOT handling agent company. -2011-2013 COO/Board Member for Operations and Maintenance/Accountable Manager at LOT Polish Airlines. -2009-2011 CEO/COO in Enter Air- charter airline. Previous positions: Quality/Safety/Security Director at Fly Jet business executive airline, Managing Director at FDS- Flight Dispatch Services company, Director of Operations and Accountable Manager at Centralwings airline, lieute nant pilot-crew commander of the 36th Military Special Air Transport Regiment for VIP in Warsaw. Graduated from the Air Force Academy, received pilot, lieutenant engineer degree, magistry studies and PhD at Warsaw University, MBA at Warsaw School of Economics. Previously also Lecturer at Silesian Univeristy of Technology-Aviation Faculty and Aviation and Space Law at Institute of International Relations at Warsaw University. Extensive experience in the aviation industry and in managing projects of the operating companies. Founder and co-founder of several existing companies in Poland in aviation industry. Author and coauthor over 40 publications. Specializes in transportation, logistics, aviation and space. Hobbies: playing the saxophone.

Published

2023-12-27

How to Cite

BEYOND PREDICTABILITY-BLACK SWAN THEORY AND ITS IMPLICATIONS FOR AVIATION SAFETY: PROPOSAL FOR DATA COLLECTION AND EVALUATION PROCESS IN THE SAFETY ANALYSIS IN THE CONTEXT OF APPLYING THE BALCK SWAN THEORY. (2023). Scientific Journal of Safety and Logistics, 1(1). https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.10436124

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