BEYOND PREDICTABILITY-BLACK SWAN THEORY AND ITS IMPLICATIONS FOR AVIATION SAFETY
PROPOSAL FOR DATA COLLECTION AND EVALUATION PROCESS IN THE SAFETY ANALYSIS IN THE CONTEXT OF APPLYING THE BALCK SWAN THEORY
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.10436124Keywords:
Black Swan Theory, aviation safety, Taleb's theoryAbstract
The realm of aviation safety has long been governed by predictive risk management strategies based on historical data. However, the inherent unpredictability of the aviation environment, characterized by its susceptibility to rare yet catastrophic events, necessitates a paradigm shift. This paper explores the application of Nassim Nicholas Taleb's Black Swan theory in the context of aviation safety, providing a novel perspective on managing unforeseen risks. We begin by elucidating the concept of Black Swan events - unpredictable and highly impactful occurrences - and their relevance in the aviation sector. Our discussion delves into the limitations of traditional safety management systems in anticipating such events, highlighting the need for more resilient and adaptable approaches. We propose a framework that integrates Black Swan principles into aviation safety practices, emphasizing the significance of preparing for the improbable through enhanced situational awareness, adaptive technologies, and robust crisis response strategies. The article juxtaposes case studies of past aviation incidents that qualify as Black Swan events, analyzing their impacts and the subsequent changes in safety protocols. We argue that incorporating the Black Swan theory into aviation safety paradigms not only enhances the ability to cope with unexpected crises but also fosters a more proactive and comprehensive safety culture. The paper concludes by discussing the theoretical and practical implications of this approach and suggesting directions for future research in aviation safety management . Through this exploration, we underscore the critical need for the aviation industry to transcend conventional risk assessment methods and embrace strategies that account for the unpredictable nature of Black Swan events.
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