Expected impacts of drones in 2030

Authors

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.14568497

Keywords:

Drone ecosystem, Commercial drone market, Societal impacts, Environmental impacts, Drone public acceptance, Noise pollution

Abstract

Article examines the anticipated impacts of drones by 2030, focusing on the European Union's commercial, societal, and environmental contexts. The analysis consolidates insights from existing literature and studies, providing an overview of the potential for market growth, societal implications, and environmental benefits and challenges. Economically, the EU drone market is projected to reach €14.5 billion, with a compound annual growth rate of 12.3%, driven by diversified applications and evolving regulatory frameworks. Societally, drones are expected to influence employment through automation and new job creation while facing challenges in public acceptance. Environmentally, drones offer significant potential to reduce CO2 emissions and improve air quality, though concerns about noise pollution and wildlife disturbance remain. The article underscores the importance of harmonized regulations, technological innovation, and public engagement to maximize the positive impacts of drones and mitigate associated risks.

Author Biographies

  • Katarzyna Kostur, Polish Air Force Academy

    Katarzyna Kostur PhD. Eng.: lecturer at Polish Air Force Academy in Deblin, Department of National Security and Logistics. She has over 20 years of experience in civil aviation, working e.g. at LOT Polish Airlines, Centralwings, Bingo Airways. The functions of the cabin crew chief and cabin crew instructor were directly related to the issues of safety on board the aircraft and at the airport, as well as Crew Resource Management (CRM). She has a UAV operator license and a PPL (A) pilot license, specializes in issues related to logistics, air transport safety, and in particular the safety culture in civil air transport.

  • Tomasz Balcerzak, Lazarski University

    Tomasz Balcerzak, PhD. Eng.: assistant profesor at Lazarski University, CEO of Wademekum LTD., Expert European Commission Research Executive Agency (REA), Expert of European Global Navigation Satellite Systems Agency. Extensive experience in the aviation industry in managing projects of the operating companies. Founder and co-founder of several companies. Author and coauthor over 50 publications. Specializes in aviation and space.

References

Balcerzak T., Kostur K., Żmigordzka M., Rajchel J., Moch N., Skwarski A., Orłowski R., Lubecki P., Konieczny I., Composites technology in aviation, (2024) Scientific Journal of Safety and Logistics, 2(1). doi:10.5281/zenodo.12168327.

Borghetti, A., Fumagalli, M., & Colombo, A. G. (2022). Viability of last-mile delivery drones in Milan: A stated preference survey and financial analysis.

Chiang, A., Goodchild, A., & Toy, J. (2019). Drones for urban freight: Estimating the environmental benefits of battery-electric UAVs.

Fons-Esteve, J. (2018). Health impacts of environmental noise: A review of current literature.

Gaia Consulting Oy. (2021). Benefits of drone deliveries in Finland: Societal, consumer, and business perspectives.

International Transport Forum (ITF). (2016). The role of drones in transport innovation: Challenges and opportunities.

Konert A., Bezzałogowe statki powietrzne. Nowa era w prawie lotniczym. Zagadnienia cywilnoprawne, C.H. Beck, Warszawa 2020.

Konert A., Kunert-Diallo A., Balcerzak T., Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS) safety and security aspects in the regulatory framework. SJSL [Internet]. 2024 May 28 [cited 2024 Dec. 20];2(1). Available from: https://www.sjsl.net/index.php/journal/article/view/18

Kostur K., Żmigrodzka m., Balcerzak T.(2020), bezzałogowe statki powietrzne w ochronie przeciwpożarowej, unmanned aerial vehicles in fire protection, Revista europea de derecho de la navegación marítima yaeronáutica, issn (versión electrónica): 2386-8902, issn (versión impresa): 1130-2127 depósito legal: Z-3235-99, Malaga.

Linchant, J., Lisein, J., Semeki, J., Lejeune, P., & Vermeulen, C. (2015). Use of drones in wildlife research and monitoring: A review.

Osiecki M., Fortońska A., Książek-Janik E., Criminal liability for unlawful usage of unmanned aircraft vehicles in selected countries of the world. 2023 International Conference on Unmanned Aircraft Systems (ICUAS), 903-910.

Park, J., Kim, S., & Suh, K. (2018). Environmental benefits of drone-based delivery services in urban and rural areas: A comparative analysis.

PwC. (2018). UK drone economy: Growth potential and sectoral impacts.

Pyzynski M., Balcerzak T. (2020), Cybersecurity of the unmanned aircraft system (uas), Revista europea de derecho de la navegación marítima yaeronáutica, issn (versión electrónica): 2386-8902, issn (versión impresa): 1130-2127 depósito legal: Z-3235- 99, Malaga.

Reddy, R., & DeLaurentis, D. (2016). Public knowledge and perception of drones: A survey-based analysis.

Schäfer, M., & Gwak, S. (2020). Psychoacoustic analysis of drone noise and its impact on public annoyance.

SESAR Joint Undertaking. (2016). European drone outlook study: Market trends, safety concerns, and future perspectives.

Stolaroff, J., et al. (2020). Life cycle greenhouse gas emissions of drones for commercial package delivery: Energy use and sustainability implications.

WING. (2022). Ex-ante and ex-post societal impact assessment of drone deliveries.

World Health Organization (WHO). (2010). Environmental noise guidelines for the European region.

World Health Organization (WHO). (2020). Air pollution and health: Urban impacts and mitigation strategies.

Żmigrodzka M.(2022) Opportunities and Threats to Services using Unmanned Aerial Systems, Humanities & Social Sciences Reviews, eISSN2395-6518.

Published

2024-12-31

How to Cite

Expected impacts of drones in 2030. (2024). Scientific Journal of Safety and Logistics, 2(2). https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.14568497

Most read articles by the same author(s)

Similar Articles

1-10 of 13

You may also start an advanced similarity search for this article.